Leading up to the 2022 NFL season, Post Action Betting will release a gambling preview for all 32 teams in the National Football League, covering the schedule, predictions, win total over/under picks, and prop bets for every team. Today, we will cover the Jacksonville Jaguars. Yesterday, we previewed the hometown New York Jets.
Jacksonville Jaguars (120/1 to win the Super Bowl, FanDuel)
2021 Record: 3-14 (4th in AFC South)
Urban Meyer is out, and Doug Pederson is in. The key move of the Jaguars’ offseason was filling the head coaching void after firing the former Florida & Ohio State head coach mid-season last year. Jaguars GM Trent Baalke opted for Pederson, a former quarterback and Super Bowl-winning head coach with the Philadelphia Eagles.
Pederson takes over a Jacksonville team that hasn’t produced a winning season since 2017, when they reached the AFC Championship Game. Jacksonville will hope Pederson’s knowledge of the quarterback position leads to a step-up for second-year talent Trevor Lawrence, last year’s number-one overall pick. Last season, Lawrence threw for 12 TDs and 17 INTs while ranking 29th in quarterback DVOA, per footballoutsiders.com.
Elsewhere, the Jaguars need a massive upgrade on defense to have a chance at a winning season. Last year, Jacksonville had the second-worst defense in the NFL. On the bright side, the Jaguars have the 12th easiest schedule this season, per Sean Koerner of The Action Network.
Jaguars offseason moves, news: Draft, trades, free agent signings, injury report
- Hired Head Coach Doug Pederson
- Signed WRs Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, TE Evan Engram, G Brandon Scherff, DL Arden Key, CB Darious Williams, and LB Foye Oluokun
- Drafted Georgia DE Travon Walker (No. 1), Utah LB Devon Lloyd (No. 27), Kentucky C Luke Fortner (No. 65), Wyoming LB Chad Muma (No. 70), Ole Miss RB Snoop Conner (No. 154 ), Ouachita Baptist CB Gregory Junior (No. 197) and Arkansas CB Montaric Brown (No. 222)
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Jaguars 2022 Schedule
Week 1: at Washington Commanders
Week 2: vs. Indianapolis Colts
Week 3: at Los Angeles Chargers
Week 4: at the Philadelphia Eagles
Week 5: vs. Houston Texas
Week 6: at Indianapolis Colts
Week 7: vs. New York Giants
Week 8: vs. Denver Broncos (London)
Week 9: vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Week 10: at Kansas City Chiefs
Week 11: BYE
Week 12: vs. Baltimore Ravens
Week 13: At Detroit Lions
Week 14: At Tennessee Titans
Week 15: vs. Dallas Cowboys
Week 16: at New York Jets
Week 17: at Houston Texans
Week 18: vs. Tennessee Titans
NFL Betting Lines: Jaguars Win Total O/U
6.5 Wins (FanDuel)
The Jaguars officially possess a competent head coach. It is difficult to put a value on ridding themselves of the circus that was Urban Meyer, but they will improve off their three-win 2021 campaign, and it should be a time to believe in the Jaguars.
But is a new head coach really worth four wins throughout a season? Sure, if you believe Pederson’s QB-whispering skills will see an uptick in performance from Lawrence and that Jacksonville is capable of taking advantage of what is (on paper) a very easy schedule at home.
However, this defense still leaves a lot to be desired. Not only did it possess the 31st-best DVOA in the league last season, but it was 31st in the NFL against the pass. New signings at CB should help slightly, but just by scanning the schedule, there are at least nine games against the above-average quarterbacks. If the Jags falter in those games, that leaves very little room to surpass this win total.
At the same time, it helps the Jaguars’ case that they play in one of the weaker divisions in the NFL. The Colts should keep pace with their record last season, but expect the Titans to regress a bit, and the Texans will be one of the worst teams in the league.
If the Jaguars can hold serve at home against those teams or grab two wins against the Texans and one combined against the Colts and Titans, expect more likely than not that they clear this total.
Betting on the NFL?
Further, just looking at the odds on each side of the win total makes it more enticing to back the over. At +115, oddsmakers are suggesting the implied odds on Jacksonville winning seven or more games is 46.5 percent. The best-case scenario for the Jaguars here is eight or nine wins.
Place some trust in the former Super Bowl-winning coach and back Pederson to succeed in his debut season.
Jaguars O/U 6.5 Wins: The Pick
Over 6.5 Wins +115 (Caesars)
Expert best bets, futures, props
AFC South Dual Forecast – Colts/Jaguars (+450), BetMGM
Let’s not turn a blind eye to the fact the Colts have an objectively easy schedule. As a result, they should have no problem claiming this weak division, especially considering the departures for Tennessee at various skill positions.
Given the cautious optimism surrounding the Jaguars, there should be a decent chance they can finish second in the division. We know the Texans will likely be last – BetMGM has them at -500 to bring up the rear in the division.
So, it really comes down to the Titans and Jaguars for second place in the AFC South. Given Tennessee had the 20th-best offensive DVOA last season and 12th-best defensive DVOA, it would undoubtedly point to regression coming for Tennessee.
If the Jaguars can take advantage of some favorable spots on the schedule, there’s a better chance they finish second than these implied odds (18.18 percent) we suggest.
Although it’s a steep mountain to climb, bettors can get decent value in a weak division with this prop.